Opinion-Poll Surveys : Tamilnadu Assembly Election 2016
This post consists of the following list of poll surveys conducted by various organizations :
Based on Parliamentary Election Results 2015
Loyola College Opinion Poll
Leadtech Online Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll
Indian Express
Rediff Local News
CVoter Poll
Times of India
Organisation : Tamilnadu Chief Electoral Officer’s Office (elections.tn.gov.in)
Facility : Poll Survey for Assembly Election 2016
Contents
TN Assembly Election :
The Tamil Nadu State Legislative Assembly General Election for the year 2016 is to be conducted in May 2016 for all the 234 assembly constituencies across all the Districts of Tamilnadu state in India.
Related / Similar Post :
TN Search Your Name in Electoral Roll
The 2016 Tamilnadu Assembly General Election will be the 15 election to be conducted in the state of Tamilnadu by the Election Commission of India.
1) Based on Parliamentary Election Results 2015 :
According to Recent Parliamentary Elections held and the voting pattern observed following are the figures:-
** This opinion poll has been calculated based on Lok sabha Elections 2014.
** The result of Lok Sabha elections 2014 has been consolidated assembly wise and depending upon voting results party wise in particular assembly the seats have been calculated.
** This may not be the correct trend but this is the latest data based on which the possible voting pattern has been calculated.
Party | No of Seat :
| Party | No of seat |
| AIADMK | 217 |
| PMK | 4 |
| DMK | 4 |
| BJP | 7 |
| VCK | 1 |
| INC | 1 |
| Totals 234 | |
AIADMK WILL COME IN MAJORITY AND WILL FORM THE GOVERNMENT. nearly 70% respondents voted in favor of AIADMK.
Party Wise Opinion Polls :
| Party | Vote % |
| AIADMK | 34.1% |
| DMK | 32.6% |
| DMDK | 4% |
| PMK | 3% |
| BJP | 2.9% |
Next Chief Minister Opinion Polls :
| CM | Vote % |
| J. Jayalalithaa | 31.56% |
| M. K. Stalin | 27.98% |
| M. Karunanidhi | 21.33% |
| Vijayakanth | 6.24% |
| Anbumani Ramadoss | 2.27% |
As per the Loyola College survey report in the upcoming Tamilnadu state Assembly General Election 2016 37% had voted that AIADMK and BJP alliance will be formed and about 14% had voted that no chance of AIADMK and BJP alliance
2) Loyola College Opinion Poll :
Professor Rajanayakam had reported that from the 80 assembly constituencies of 28 districts of Tamilnadu state the team had met 3370 People to conduct the election opinion poll.
Tamil Nadu Party Wise Opinion Poll :
| Party | Vote % |
| AIADMK | 34.10% |
| DMK | 32.60% |
| DMDK | 4% |
| PMK | 3% |
| BJP | 2.90% |
3) Leadtech Online Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll :
| Party | 2016 Seat forecast | Vote % |
| AIADMK | + 81 | 34.7% |
| DMK | + 55 | 23.5% |
| CPI(M) | +27 | 11.5% |
| Others | 11.4 | 4.8% |
| Total 234 | ||
4) Indian Express :
** The AIADMK got support from 34.1 per cent people followed by DMK (32.6), DMDK (four), Pattali Makkal Katchi (three), BJP (2.9) and Congress (1.6).
** Releasing the findings of the opinion poll by ‘People’s Studies’, professor Rajanayakam said it was carried out in the backdrop of AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa becoming Chief Minister again and the ongoing agitation for prohibition.
** The situation arising out of different parties proposing their own Chief Ministerial candidates and the demand for a ‘power share’ from some parties were also taken into consideration.
** It revealed that 53.4 per cent respondents were of the view that there was no alternative to the AIADMK and DMK in Tamil Nadu.
5) Rediff Local News :
| Party | Vote % |
| AIADMK | 37.7% |
| DMK | 35.7% |
6)CVoter Poll :
| Party | No of seats | Vote % |
| AIADMK | 116 | 41.1 |
| DMK | 101 | 40 |
| BJP | 0 | 5 |
| DMDK, PMK, PWF | 17 | – |
Findings of the Tamil Nadu pre-poll survey:
Seat-wise:
** The AIADMK may get 116 seats, 87 less than its tally of 203 in the 2011 polls.
** The DMK may win 101 seats, 70 more than their 2011 tally of 31.
** The BJP is projected to win no seat while ‘Others’, including the DMDK, PMK and PWF, can bag 17.
Vote-share wise:
** The AIADMK’s vote share may fall to 41.1 percent from 51.9 per cent garnered in 2011.
** The DMK-led alliance’s vote-share may be around 40 per cent.
** The BJP’s vote-share is likely to increase from 2.2 to five per cent
7) Times of India :
| Party | No of seats | Vote % |
| AIADMK | 130 | 39 |
| DMK | 70 | 32 |
| BJP | 0 | 4 |
| Others | 34 | 25 |
** The opinion poll shows that Jayalalithaa will remain unchallenged and there is no DMK sting this time.
** The opinion poll also has some bad news for BJP which, it says, will fail to get off the mark.
** Jayalalithaa’s party the AIADMK and its allies are projected to get 130 seats in the 234-seat assembly, while the DMK will have to settle at 70, the poll shows.
** Other regional parties are expected to fare better with the opinion poll giving them 34 seats and a seat share percentage of 25.
** The AIADMK is going to win 39 per cent of the popular votes, while the DMK will manage to garner 32 per cent of seat share.
** The BJP has, however, given out a word of caution.
** “Never predict Tamil Nadu as a final outcome, it has always surprised India,” BJP leader GVL Narsimha Rao told Times Now.
** The DMK has, meanwhile said it is too early to give Jayalalithaa an edge.
Summary :
This is the summary of all the opinion poll surveys so far for the assembly elections for Tamilnadu in 2016.
| By | Date | AIADMK | DMK | DMDK | PMK | Congress | BJP | CPI(M) | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parliamentary Election based | 29-12-2015 | 34.1% | 32.6% | 4% | 3% | - | 2.9% | - | - |
| Loyola College | 04-01-2016 | 34.10% | 32.60% | 4% | 3% | - | 2.90% | - | - |
| Leadtech Online | 03-01-2016 | 34.7% | 23.5% | - | - | - | - | 11.5% | 4.8% |
| Indian Express | 04-01-2016 | 34.1% | 32.6% | 4% | 3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | - | - |
| Rediff | 23-01-2016 | 35.7% | 37.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CVoter Poll | 05-03-2016 | 41.1% | 40% | - | - | - | 5% | - | - |
| Times of India | 01-04-2016 | 39% | 32% | - | - | - | - | - | 25% |
About Poll Survey :
** The Election Commission has observed that during the run up to any general elections to the House of the People or State Legislative Assemblies, Opinion Polls are often conducted by different organisations.
** The results of such opinion polls are published in newspapers, magazines and other periodicals, and sometimes telecast/broadcast on the electronic media.
** The dissemination of such results of Opinion Polls receives wide publicity and coverage in the print and electronic media and such dissemination, particularly on the eve of polls, has the potential to influence the electors when they are in the mental process of making up of their minds to vote or not to vote for a certain political party or a candidate.
** The methodology followed by different organisations conducting such opinion polls varies from organisation to organisation, or the agencies, conducting such polls.
** Similarly, the sample size of the electorate covered by such polls and geographic spread of the survey also differs substantially in each case.
** Apart from the Opinion Polls, Exit Polls are also conducted by some organisations on the days of polls.
** Considering the magnitude of the electorate in the country, particularly at the time of countrywide general elections to the House of the People, and the complexity of operations involved in the conduct of such general elections, the poll is taken in a phased manner, spread over a period of two to three weeks.
** Publication of result of any Exit Poll, in the intervening period when the poll in any of the States or Union Territories or constituencies is yet to be taken, is likely to affect the unbiased exercise of franchise by the elector, one way or the other.
Note :
AIADMK – All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
DMK – Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
DMDK – Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam
PMK – Pattali Makkal Katchi
BJP – Bharatiya Janata Party
CPI(M) – Communist Party of India (Marxist)
PMK – Pattali Makkal Katchi
PWF – People’s Welfare Front
Last year, I sent application to opposite parties and they are not responding.