This post consists of the following list of poll surveys conducted by various organizations :
Leadtech Online
Based on Lok sabha Elections 2014
Dailyo Opinion Poll
ABP News-Nielsen India TV
CVoter Poll
Times of India
Organisation : Chief Electoral Officer, Kerala (ceo.kerala.gov.in)
Facility : Poll Survey for Assembly Election 2016
Contents
Kerala Assembly Election :
According to Various Opinion Polls to be published by Various Survey agencies and TV Channels Following are the Opinion Polls for Kerala Assembly Elections 2016:-
Related / Similar Service :
CEO Kerala Search your Name in Voter List
Kerala Election Schedule will be released somewhere in first week of march 2016 as per election commission and the elections would take place along with other four states i.e Assam, TamilNadu, WestBengal and Puducherry.
1) Leadtech Online :
Leadtech Kerala Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll (Oct-Dec 2015)
* (Sample Size – 855)
| Party | 2016 Seat forecast | Vote % |
| BJP | 59 | 42.2 |
| CPI(M) + | 31 | 21.9 |
| INC | 47 | 33.7 |
| Others | 3 | 4.8 |
| Total 140 | ||
2) Based on Lok sabha Elections 2014 :
** This opinion poll has been calculated based on Lok sabha Elections 2014.
** The result of Lok Sabha elections 2014 has been consolidated assembly wise and depending upon voting results party wise in particular assembly the seats have been calculated.
** This may not be the correct trend but this is the latest data based on which the possible voting pattern has been calculated.
| Party | No of Seats |
| IUML | 11 |
| SJD | 1 |
| CPM | 36 |
| INC | 57 |
| CPI | 9 |
| IND | 11 |
| KEC(M) | 7 |
| RSP | 4 |
| Totals | 140 |
3) Dailyo Opinion Poll :
** The results did put BJP in third position, behind the winning Congress candidate and second place CPI(M).
** But O Rajagopal has gained 34,145 votes against the party’s 2011 (legislative assembly election) tally of 7,694 votes.
** A look at the vote share of various parties show that only the BJP has increased its vote share from 6.6 per cent to 23.96 per cent.
** The polled votes of Congress and CPI(M) remain almost at the same level when compared to the votes these two parties had got in 2011.
** But vote share fell drastically.
** In 2011, the Congress bagged 56,797 votes which was 48.78 per cent of the total polled votes.
** In 2015, the same is 56,448 and 39.61per cent.
** The CPI(M) had 46,123 votes and 39.61 per cent in 2011.
** Now, it is 46,320, which is only 32.5 per cent.
** Meanwhile, the total polled votes increased by 26,000. (BJP increased its votes by 26,451.)
** Out of 154 booths, BJP came first in 26 booths.
(Vellanad – 7, Aruvikkara – 5, Poovachal – 4, Kuttichal – 4, Aryanad – 3, Uzhamalakkal – 2, Tolikkod – 1).
** These areas are considered to have a Hindu majority.
** And out of 26 booths, 17 are in CPI(M) strongholds.
** In the last elections, the BJP was in the third position in all 26
4) ABP News-Nielsen India TV :
Elections in Kerala are regularly held to fill government officials at all levels of government in both Kerala and India as a whole. These range from national elections to regional local body or panchayat elections. The Assembly of Kerala creates laws regarding the conduct of local body elections unilaterally while any changes by the state legislature to the conduct of state level elections need to be approved by the Parliament of India. In addition, the state legislature may be dismissed by the Parliament according to Article 356 of the Indian Constitution and President’s rule may be imposed.
| Party | Vote % |
| BJP | 9 (+2) |
| Left | 38 |
| UDF | 46 (-4) |
| Others | 7 |
5) CVoter Poll :
| Party | No of seats | Vote % |
| UDF | 49 | 39.1 |
| CPI(M) | 89 | 44.6 |
| BJP | 1 | – |
| Others | 1 | – |
In Kerala, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s United Democratic Front may be dislodged from power. It has been projected to win 49 seats, compared to 72 seats won five years ago, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 89 seats, with a clear majority in a House of 140. LDF had won 66 seats five years ago. BJP-led NDA is projected to win only one, and ‘Others’ 1.
Vote percentage wise, LDF is projected to get 44.6 pc, up by one per cent, while UDF is projected to get 39.1 pc (down from 45.8 pc last time).
6) Times of India :
| Party | No of Seats |
| Left Democratic Front | 86 |
| Congress-led United Democratic Front | 53 |
| BJP-led alliance | 1 |
Summary :
This is the summary of all the opinion poll surveys so far for the assembly elections for Tamilnadu in 2016.
| By | Date | BJP | CPI(M) + | Others | UDF | Left | INC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leadtech Online | 03-01-2016 | 42.2 | 21.9 | 4.8 | - | - | 33.7 |
| Dailyo Opinion Poll | 03-07-2015 | - | 32.5 | - | - | - | 39.61 |
| ABP News-Nielsen India TV | 05-02-2016 | 9 (+2) | - | 7 | 46 (-4) | 38 | - |
| CVoter Poll | 05-03-2016 | - | 44.6 | - | 39.1 | - | - |
| Times of India | 01-03-2016 | 1 | - | - | 53 | 86 | - |
Note :
BJP – Bharatiya Janata Party
CPI(M) – Communist Party of India (Marxist)
RSP – Revolutionary Socialist Party
INC – Indian National Congress
UDF – United Democratic Front
KEC(M) – Kerala Congress
SJD – Socialist Janata (Democratic)
CPM – Communist Party of India (Marxist)
IUML – Indian Union Muslim League
View Comments (1)
As on 15th of may 2016 hope that the BJP will find way to form the government.